Modeling tailpipe NOx emissions has always been difficult due to the complexity of the numerous factors involved in the catalytic conversion of the pollutant. Most emissions modeling has been based on steady state driving. A parameterized algebraic model for second-by-second tailpipe emissions of NOx for a composite Tier 1 car is presented employing data from the Federal Test Procedure Revision Project (FTPRP). Calculating fuel rate from measured engine out values, the catalytic converter is physically modeled based on the fuel rate history and a few fitted parameters. Under certain conditions, the changes in fuel rate are related to trends in the air to fuel ratio. The model accurately predicts the time dependence of hot stabilized tailpipe NOx emissions in the FTP bag 3 and US06 driving cycles. Modeling of low power driving, as in bag 2, is not as successful. Although tailored for a fleet average car, individual automobiles can be modeled with reasonable success by tweaking the parameters; they can have much different emissions profiles due to engine strategy, catalyst design, and driver variability.