Comparison of EURO NCAP test results with Folksam car model safety ratings 2001-06-0033

The European crash test program, Euro NCAP, has since its launch presented results of some 80 individual car models. The improvements in the general level of protection have been substantial. While the intention of the test program is to stimulate the use of best practice, and not to predict real-life outcome, it is nevertheless important to validate the positive development, and to pinpoint potential areas not included in the laboratory safety ratings.

In this study, Euro NCAP rating results were compared with a comprehensive car model safety rating method based on real-life crashes, developed by Folksam. In addition, correlation with relative injury risks was also studied. In the Folksam method, the ratings are based on the risk of fatalities and long-term consequences due to injury. The car models were grouped together according to the Euro NCAP star ratings.

A correlation was found between Euro NCAP scoring and relative risk of serious and fatal injury as well as for the Folksam rating score (relative risk of fatality or permanent disability). No correlation between Euro NCAP scoring and relative risk of any injury was found. A stronger correlation between risks for serious consequences was found when AIS1 neck injuries were excluded compared to when they were included. This indicates correctly that these injuries are not reflected in the Euro NCAP ratings. The risk to sustain a police reported severe or fatal injury was found to diminish with 12% per star. The risk to be fatally injured or sustaining a long-term disability was found to diminish with 7% per star.