Determining the Relative Likelihoods of Competing Scenarios of Events Leading to an Accident 2004-01-1222
Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the likelihoods of competing scenarios offered by opposing parties involved in a motor vehicle accident. A case study is presented in which there is a dispute among the parties about who passed who first. It is shown that even though both scenarios are possible, one of the scenarios has a much greater likelihood.
Besides demonstrating how Monte Carlo simulation provides probability information that can be used to weigh the likelihood of competing scenarios, the case study also provides another example of how Monte Carlo simulation can dig information out of the evidence surrounding an accident that cannot be obtained by other methods.
Citation: Kimbrough, S., "Determining the Relative Likelihoods of Competing Scenarios of Events Leading to an Accident," SAE Technical Paper 2004-01-1222, 2004, https://doi.org/10.4271/2004-01-1222. Download Citation
Author(s):
Scott Kimbrough
Pages: 14
Event:
SAE 2004 World Congress & Exhibition
ISSN:
0148-7191
e-ISSN:
2688-3627
Also in:
Accident Reconstruction 2004-SP-1873
Related Topics:
Simulation and modeling
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