Determining the Relative Likelihoods of Competing Scenarios of Events Leading to an Accident

Paper #:
  • 2004-01-1222

Published:
  • 2004-03-08
Citation:
Kimbrough, S., "Determining the Relative Likelihoods of Competing Scenarios of Events Leading to an Accident," SAE Technical Paper 2004-01-1222, 2004, https://doi.org/10.4271/2004-01-1222.
Author(s):
Pages:
14
Abstract:
Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the likelihoods of competing scenarios offered by opposing parties involved in a motor vehicle accident. A case study is presented in which there is a dispute among the parties about who passed who first. It is shown that even though both scenarios are possible, one of the scenarios has a much greater likelihood.Besides demonstrating how Monte Carlo simulation provides probability information that can be used to weigh the likelihood of competing scenarios, the case study also provides another example of how Monte Carlo simulation can dig information out of the evidence surrounding an accident that cannot be obtained by other methods.
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