Fedewa, E. and Chesbrough, C., "Sustainable Mobility: The Business Case for Global Vehicle Electrification," SAE Technical Paper 2010-01-2311, 2010, doi:10.4271/2010-01-2311.
There is a profound sense of urgency among leading industrialized nations: governments recognize that massive reductions in carbon emissions are required if we are to limit climate change in an era of ever-increasing global population growth and increasing affluence. They may also believe that the auto industry can deliver more carbon reduction faster at a lower absolute and political cost than other industries.Continued investment on the part of governments and the auto industry to create a viable model for sustainable mobility and vehicle electrification in the 2010 – 2020 timeframe should help drive transport-related carbon emissions down to the 60-90 grams/kilometer level, from 130-155 grams today, and contribute to an overall 20-30 percent reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions.When leaders of the G8 nations (the United States, Canada, Russia, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and the European Union) left the 2009 annual summit it was with a commitment to cut greenhouse-gas emissions enough to limit the rise in global temperatures in 2050 to just two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.Over the next five years, we believe that significantly higher-volume applications of existing technology, such as downsized and boosted gasoline engines, will be enough to meet current regulatory targets.Supplier companies will find that OEMs all will draw from more or less the same technology pool, which will create business opportunities for companies that supply components and systems including turbochargers, direct-injection fuel injectors, stop-start systems and, of course, battery packs and other hybrid components.In the run up to 2020, sources have estimated that total global spending on green initiatives will be (U.S.) $4.4 trillion, with as much as $428 billion targeted for sustainable mobility projects. Electrification of the global automotive fleet must occur, and is occurring, on multiple levels: Individual components and systems are being electrified. Mild- and full-hybrid vehicle powertrains are increasing in volume Full-electric vehicles will begin to enter production in meaningful volumes.