An Ensemble Approach for Model Bias Prediction 2013-01-1387

Model validation is a process of determining the degree to which a model is an accurate representation of the real world from the perspective of the intended uses of the model. In reliability based design, the intended use of the model is to identify an optimal design with the minimum cost function while satisfying all reliability constraints. It is pivotal that computational models should be validated before conducting the reliability based design. This paper presents an ensemble approach for model bias prediction in order to correct predictions of computational models. The basic idea is to first characterize the model bias of computational models, then correct the model prediction by adding the characterized model bias. The ensemble approach is composed of two prediction mechanisms: 1) response surface of model bias, and 2) Copula modeling of a series of relationships between design variables and the model bias, between model prediction and the model bias. Advantages of both mechanisms are utilized with an accuracy based weighting approach. A vehicle design of front impact example is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology.