Kleyner, A., "How Stress Variance in the Automotive Environment will Affect a ‘True’ Value of the Reliability Demonstrated by Accelerated Testing," SAE Int. J. Passeng. Cars – Electron. Electr. Syst. 7(2):552-559, 2014, doi:10.4271/2014-01-0722.
This paper discusses the effect of the field stress variance on the value of demonstrated reliability in the automotive testing. In many cases the acceleration factor for a reliability demonstration test is calculated based on a high percentile automotive stress level, typically corresponding to severe user or environmental conditions. In those cases the actual field (‘true’) reliability for the population will be higher than that demonstrated by a validation test.This paper presents an analytical approach to estimating ‘true’ field reliability based on the acceleration model and stress variable distribution over the vehicle population. The method is illustrated by an example of automotive electronics reliability demonstration testing.