ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model

Paper #:
  • 2015-01-0974

Published:
  • 2015-04-14
DOI:
  • 10.4271/2015-01-0974
Citation:
Brooker, A., Gonder, J., Lopp, S., and Ward, J., "ADOPT: A Historically Validated Light Duty Vehicle Consumer Choice Model," SAE Technical Paper 2015-01-0974, 2015, doi:10.4271/2015-01-0974.
Pages:
10
Abstract:
The Automotive Deployment Options Projection Tool (ADOPT) is a light-duty vehicle consumer choice and stock model supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Vehicle Technologies Office. It estimates technology improvement impacts on future U.S. light-duty vehicles sales, petroleum use, and greenhouse gas emissions.ADOPT uses techniques from the multinomial logit method and the mixed logit method to estimate vehicle sales. Specifically, it estimate sales based on the weighted value of key attributes including vehicle price, fuel cost, acceleration, range and usable volume. The average importance of several attributes changes nonlinearly across its range and changes with income. For several attributes, a distribution of importance around the average value is used to represent consumer heterogeneity. The majority of existing vehicle makes, models, and trims are included to fully represent the market. The Corporate Average Fuel Economy regulations are enforced.The sales feed into the ADOPT stock model. It captures key aspects for summing petroleum use and greenhouse gas emissions. This includes capturing the change in vehicle miles traveled by vehicle age, the creation of new model options based on the success of existing vehicles, new vehicle option introduction rate limits, and survival rates by vehicle age.ADOPT has been extensively validated with historical sales data. It matches in key dimensions including sales by fuel economy, acceleration, price, vehicle size class, and powertrain across multiple years.A graphical user interface provides easy and efficient use. It manages the inputs, simulation, and results.
Access
Now
SAE MOBILUS Subscriber? You may already have access.
Buy
Select
Price
List
Download
$27.00
Mail
$27.00
Members save up to 40% off list price.
Share
HTML for Linking to Page
Page URL

Related Items

Training / Education
2009-02-19
Training / Education
2017-06-28
Article
2016-04-25
Technical Paper / Journal Article
2004-11-16
Technical Paper / Journal Article
2004-11-16
Training / Education
1997-05-29
Training / Education
2010-03-15