A finite element model of cerebral contusion in the rat was developed and compared to experimental injury maps demonstrating blood-brain barrier (BBB) breakdown. The model was exercised at the nine unique loading conditions used experimentally. Logistic regressions of four variables, maximum principal logarithmic strain (LEP), maximum principal stress (SP), strain energy density (SEN), and von Mises stress (MIS) demonstrated highly significant confidence in the prediction of the 50th percentile values (chi-squared, p<0.00001). However, only values for LEP were invariant across loading conditions. These results suggest that the BBB is most sensitive to LEP, and that breakdown occurs above a strain of 0.188 +/- 0.0324.