Business Case Modelling of Large Area Flexible Circuits in the Foresight Vehicle Programme 2002-01-1128

This paper describes research to investigate the feasibility of manufacturing large area flexible circuits as an automotive wiring harness replacement. Circuits manufactured from a base material size of up to 2.0 metres by 1.0 metres have been considered. A business case model has been constructed using the Crystal Ball 2000 risk analysis software package. The model includes manufacturing costs and has been constructed down to the level of individual manufacturing processes. Levels of risk and probability distributions for project profitability have been modelled for alternative circuit manufacturing options. A method of assessing risk of failure in the marketplace has been developed which involves what-if analysis of production volume, manufacturing cost and sales price.