Energy Transformation Propelled Evolution of Automotive Carbon Emissions 2023-01-7006

The Chinese government and industries have proposed strategic plans and policies for automotive renewable-energy transformation in response to China’s commitments to peak the national carbon emissions before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. We thus analyze the evolution of carbon emissions from the vehicle fleet in China with our data-driven models based on these plans. Our results indicate that the vehicle life-cycle carbon emissions are appreciable, accounting for 8.9% of the national total and 11.3% of energy combustion in 2020. Commercial vehicles are the primary source of automotive carbon emissions, accounting for about 60% of the vehicle energy cycle. Among these, heavy-duty trucks are the most important, producing 38.99% of the total carbon emissions in the vehicle operation stage in 2020 and 52.18% in 2035. On the other hand, carbon emissions from vehicle assembly and power battery manufacturing processes keep about 10% of the vehicle life-cycle total due mainly to the cleaner and cleaner grid electricity. Furthermore, although carbon emissions from vehicle operation will peak in 2028, meeting the government’s carbon-peak goal, those from the energy cycle and life cycle will continue to increase until 2035, missing that goal. We further characterize the carbon emissions projections for the future, and the results indicate that deploying carbon-free hydrogen energy vigorously, particularly in heavy-duty trucks, could help achieve vehicle net-zero carbon emissions by 2060.